tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71602307863435592672012-02-01T16:46:40.041-08:00Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.comBlogger401100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-30932249511662586232012-02-01T16:27:00.001-08:002012-02-01T16:46:40.080-08:00

The idea of using the chart with candlesticks (or candles) for predicting market prices is very old. Two centuries ago, Japanese rice trader found that the candlesticks pattern chart could be used as a tool to predict future prices in a free market with a natural demand-supply balance. The method was improved later by others and today it is successfully used by many traders and investors in the

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-54736973954723234212011-12-13T21:03:00.000-08:002011-12-13T21:06:44.046-08:00

In general, the stock market demonstrates weakness despite better-than-expected US economic reports and news. The US unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% in November from 9% in October. It is a lowest level in more than 2.5 years, since March 2009. October US retail sales were 7.2% higher than the same month a year ago. Furthermore, the retail sales have been raising for 5 straight months.

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-79256370134855625442011-11-18T18:22:00.001-08:002011-11-18T18:23:28.855-08:00

After a few years of struggle to find an alternative to over-leveraged financial models, the transition to a new era of a deleveraged economy has begun. Recently, the necessity of this transition is confirmed by rising European and Global financial uncertainties. Evidently, these are negative factors that still keep investing risk at higher than normal level. On the other hand, there are positive

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-15909750604365720992011-10-18T08:28:00.000-07:002011-10-18T09:33:28.231-07:00

A sluggish economical recovery, weak job market, financial crisis in Europe, and the fear of global recession kept the major stock market indexes in a choppy pattern during 3rd quarter. However, October started with some good news and better-than-expected statistics. These were able to lift S&P-500 from 1075 to 1225 (almost 14%) for two weeks. Among good economic news: September was one of the

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-90632542572019769132011-10-05T09:41:00.000-07:002011-10-05T09:44:21.916-07:00

Lately, the economists re-evaluated their previous estimates and significantly lowered the predictions for the US economic growth this year and in 2012. This fundamental equilibrium reset, as one-time event, coincidentally has combined with a cyclical September-October low market season. A high volatility, remaining macroeconomic risks, and crowd fears persist. A lot of confusions still dominate

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-79686442346472437162011-08-17T14:11:00.000-07:002011-08-17T14:25:29.774-07:00

What did exactly cause the recent sell-off ? There are different opinions among experts - debt-ceiling standoff, US credit rating downgrade, disappointing economic growth statistics, Europe troubles, or all combined together. As usually, it happened suddenly and quickly. There might be at least two ideas why recent declines happen faster and faster. The first one is that investors reaction to

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-60087817356932957802011-07-13T13:05:00.000-07:002011-07-13T13:20:36.513-07:00

The US unemployment rate increased during the last three months and reached 9.2%. Even so, in a long-term perspective, a high unemployment is on its new "normal" level and a small increase looks rather as a noise, not a strong signal. Also normally, unemployment rate is considered as a lagging indicator and does not indicate what will happen in the future. Often, unemployment numbers continue to

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-5211011932223310362011-06-30T12:17:00.000-07:002011-08-02T16:59:10.475-07:00

There are many classical well-know chart patterns that found a long time ago and now considered as "typical" ones. Also there are many other patterns that can signal a particular, bullish or bear trend, but not described yet. Known or unknown patterns that are persistent can be repeatable in the future; therefore, they can be used to predict the future price movement. To ease the job to memorize

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-61282993079169771502011-06-28T19:40:00.000-07:002011-08-02T16:56:32.282-07:00

Collected and analyzed data allow comparing different technical analysis indicators. However, according to statistical researches, the problem is that depending on time-frame, market conditions, industry specifics, type of stock or ETF, and other factors, some indicators might be best but other worst, and vice versa. In general, the question can be answered only for some average analysis. As

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-42124104869815220832011-06-10T18:32:00.000-07:002011-06-16T09:21:39.112-07:00

One of the popular ideas now is that until S&P-500 index touch 1250 number, it is too early to buy or sell. However, on the assumption that currently many market participants are looking at charts and use technical analysis to make their buy-sell decisions, the index might not move down too much, at least for now. If almost everyone is considering that it is not good time yet to sell (or go

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-49383280976282562152011-05-28T11:05:00.000-07:002011-05-28T11:26:20.306-07:00

Yes and No. Evidently, there are periods when technical analysis works and the periods when it does not. The reasons can be many – fundamental changes, revised expectations, unexpected news, etc. During the periods when a majority of market participants make their decisions based on past market performance, as a rule, there would be some technical indicators that relatively work well. Are there

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-59420072545601132002011-04-08T16:21:00.000-07:002011-05-30T18:31:17.725-07:00

“An advertisement said, 'Send me $1 and I will let you know how it was easy for me to become a millionaire.' A man who wants to be a millionaire sent $1 in an envelop. After a while he received a reply: 'I became a millionaire by asking to send me $1' The next day, the advertisement said, 'Send me $1 and I will let you know how it was easy for me to become a billionaire.'” - Author unknown

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-3509774812245551082011-03-15T14:13:00.000-07:002011-03-15T14:18:52.157-07:00

The first hit on a weak global economy recovery was the re-appearing of European debt problems. Then as it turned out after revised estimate of the fourth quarter, the US economy grew 2.8% instead of 2.9% during 2010. Next, the uprisings in the Middle East induced oil prices to surge. A soaring oil price caused the fear of inflation. The market reaction to oil price overshadowed the good news of

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-91319730423671907322011-02-05T16:08:00.000-08:002011-02-05T16:33:02.661-08:00

Within bear or bull market there are always fluctuations in stocks prices. It can be said about indexes, ETFs, and most other investing instruments. As example, let's consider an equilibrium market state that is based on a realistic evaluation. Assume it is a starting point. Then at some moment a good news released with the expectation that is above a realistic evaluation. The first reaction

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-8664108519431227192010-12-31T17:51:00.000-08:002010-12-31T18:00:13.945-08:00

S&P-500 index has grown 12.78% during 2010 and it is ending on a positive note. The US corporate profits continue improving and companies have a lot of cash that provide opportunities for business optimization, better dividends, and make stocks more attractive. Also during the last several months the stock market became more predictable from the technical analysis point of view.Many experts

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-28163986620346443212010-11-13T10:00:00.000-08:002010-11-13T10:03:11.139-08:00

The US stock market reached the highest level in two years after a strong two-month rally. However, good news about improving retail results and a four-month low jobless claims rate were unable to push the market higher. Since the current market is driven mostly by news, it was a relatively rare case when technical indicators were able to predict a downtrend. A massive insider selling was another

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-14029768417534504132010-10-30T13:20:00.000-07:002010-10-30T13:45:54.330-07:00

Although technically there are no many signals for significant advance in any direction, a possible scenario could be a downside move at the end of the first week and then a slight bounce back. As example of technical prediction, see the chart. The chart has been plotted using InvAn-4 pattern recognition forecast for S&P-500 index prices (November 1-12, 2010). From the summarized point of view,

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-34496837129563198592010-10-09T12:12:00.000-07:002010-10-11T10:20:57.250-07:00

Due to a growing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will ease a credit environment to help the economy recovery, the US dollar dropped to several-month lows against most foreign currencies. More dollars may stimulate the economical growth. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve pumps more dollars into the economy, a falling dollar can negatively affect consumers, businesses, and investors

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-48342148022439995392010-09-24T23:44:00.000-07:002010-09-25T10:34:48.883-07:00

The chart shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from September 27 to October 8, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is fluctuations with eventual uptrend. However, technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-19236068123023827592010-09-12T15:14:00.001-07:002010-09-12T15:18:37.670-07:00

The patterns of the S&P-500 Index may be repeatable in the future. Pattern recognition systems can help to find similar patterns easier by classifying them. After selecting similar patterns, it is possible to use them to predict the future pattern. Investment Analyzer (IA) by Addaptron Software has a few extra features for a short term forecast. To predict prices of the selected stock (index)

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-78218418521348694452010-08-27T20:45:00.000-07:002011-03-26T12:34:26.838-07:00

There is a lot of technical indicators, as well as, multiple interpretations of each indicator's signal. Many stock investors and traders use own favorite indicators and insist on specific interpretations. How to make sure that it is right? What if to allow a computer to decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more at current market conditions? One of computer tools that

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-25503579984136393002010-08-09T21:29:00.000-07:002011-03-26T12:30:00.925-07:00

There are several negative fundamental factors that can cause stock market downtrend: GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter compared with 3.7% in the first quarter; jobless rate is at high level (9.5%); individuals and companies save cash at near record levels; consumer spending shows no signs of picking up; state budget deficit poses an additional risk to the US economy.Despite a weak

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-63166715836422236772010-07-26T22:50:00.000-07:002010-07-26T22:53:28.233-07:00

Investment Analyzer InvAn-3/4 uses free data sources to update stock prices and financial data for technical and fundamental analyses. In some rare cases, it can be difficult to download the data from the Internet. The reasons can be different - an interrupting or slow Internet connection, unstable availability of the source, or the absence of requested data (for example, some company can go out

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-42458818434695455352010-07-09T21:27:00.001-07:002011-03-26T12:34:49.164-07:00

S&P-500 has increased around 5% during the first decade of July. Evidently, the stock market was uplifted by investors' optimism. One of the most important fundamental factors that causes this uptrend was strong second-quarter earnings reports. Also other positive news factors stopped sliding down S&P-500 index. From the technical point of view, downs and ups follow each other. Any action

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-73878426730112339872010-06-27T15:34:00.001-07:002010-06-27T15:51:18.923-07:00

Stock market forecast can be built using different technical indicators. The relative change between the closing prices of two consequent days can be called one-day performance indicator (ODP indicator). The interpretation of ODP indicator chart is very simple - an uptrend starts after a big positive value of ODP indicator (the chart has been presented in the recent post). It works by a simple

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-18090742272912252182010-06-09T21:29:00.000-07:002010-06-09T21:39:03.526-07:00

According to Efficient Markets approach, news and other publicly available information are incorporated into the price of a stock. One of the available news factors is a state of the stock market itself - bullish, bearish, or neutral. The state can be the same or it can evolve. A state change results the re-evaluation of price with a certain time delay. So any stock market movement causes a

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-34886820648003506302010-05-24T13:36:00.000-07:002010-05-28T20:18:12.228-07:00

The Research and Development web-page on Addaptron Software website has been updated. The page has been enriched by the latest headlines form different stock investing blogs. It still includes the links to stock investing articles (some articles can be useful for investors-beginners):  * How to Become a Successful Investor * How to Understand the Stock Market Nowadays * Optimal Investing Timing  

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-6082409226670731912010-05-19T22:10:00.000-07:002011-03-26T12:35:30.955-07:00

Many investors could benefit from a fluctuating nature of the stock market. A semi-cyclical nature of the market is a bad surprise for some investors but others know how to take advantage of the cycles.One of the market characters is that it has powerful and pretty consistent cycles. Its performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes.

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-58197423676533237232010-05-07T23:50:00.000-07:002010-05-21T20:59:08.568-07:00

Traders, exchanges, and regulators try to define what prompted Dow Jones Industrial Average near 1,000-point drop on May 6, 2010. One of the theories is that it was a mistake triggered when a trader accidentally sold billions of shares instead of millions. However, it may be not a case this time. Firstly this correction was supposed to happen as it was predicted by many. Our cycle analysis

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-53853311372638905572010-05-03T18:21:00.000-07:002010-05-21T20:58:51.114-07:00

Since all stock market buy-sell rush built on expectations, today's prices strongly depend on prices that even expected to be in several months. For example, if you are the first who know that today's $20 share would cost $30 in six months, you would rather to buy immediately. What can happen if others have the same prediction? They can do the same - buy immediately and that buying power can push

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-42223768613607365632010-04-23T23:45:00.000-07:002010-05-21T20:58:33.212-07:00

Each company belongs to a particular industry, sector, national stock market, as well as, global stock market. If system conditions change, company and its stocks respond to this changes. Indeed, a general stock market exerts a significant influence on the behavior of an individual company stocks. That is why experienced investors always carefully watch the stock market, sectors, and industries

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-36756536194189393232010-04-17T22:34:00.000-07:002011-12-13T07:36:53.382-08:00

The more methods and information are taken into consideration, the more precise an investment-related solution and, consequently, the more profitable is investing. One of the forecasting methods that uses a collective wisdom is an expert method. This method can be explained by following. As example, an experimentalist shows a pen and asks about 40 people to write down their estimate of the length

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-90733866652196864352010-04-05T20:33:00.001-07:002010-04-05T20:59:52.097-07:00

Increase in US employment in March is the biggest increase in the last three years. Bloomberg estimates that the economy probably grew by 2.8% in the first quarter of 2010. Some economists believe that the deepest US recession since the 1930s has ended now.The recent news about strong improvements in demand at services businesses and in the housing market added to an optimistic mood. White House

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-17270120047559344312010-03-26T21:23:00.000-07:002011-04-06T14:56:53.355-07:00

Many stock market experts consider that the last several years show the increasing of general market influence on the behavior of an individual stock. You could find the number around 40% for stock market risk-factor in old books. But now the general market influence is considered almost 85%. That is why it is very important to look at the stock market first and try to predict it before investing

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-78706516282970664632010-03-15T21:56:00.000-07:002010-03-16T06:48:19.074-07:00

Retailers and consumer discretionary stocks demonstrate a strong performance. Retail sales posted a surprising increase in February (sales rose 0.3%). Although some analysts doubt that the spending gains can be sustained since the unemployment rate still remains high (9.7% in February), fundamentals of many companies gradually started showing improvements. If the overall US national debt over the

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-80556455877657416522010-03-01T20:26:00.000-08:002010-03-24T21:00:39.656-07:00

According to neural network forecast, SP-500 price behavior for March 2010 expected to be fluctuating without significant advances. The chart below has been calculated using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. Neural networks can discover patterns in data that humans might not notice and successfully predict the future trend. Addaptron Software has developed NNSTP-2, neural network

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-57554229241560539572010-02-27T09:40:00.000-08:002010-05-21T20:57:05.719-07:00

According to cycle analysis forecast, SP-500 performance for March 2010 expected to be negative. The chart below has been plotted using Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-3.The stock market performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes. It is not easy to analyze the repetition of typical patterns in stock market performance because

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-67145170250552124652010-02-13T09:52:00.000-08:002010-05-21T20:56:32.643-07:00

The more methods and information are taken into consideration, the more precise an investment-related solution and, consequently, the more profitable is investing. There is Expert Method. This method can be explained by following. As example, an experimentalist shows a pen and asks about 40 people to write down their estimate of the length. Then he collects notes and calculates the average number

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-50056327218755451902010-02-11T18:55:00.000-08:002010-02-11T19:23:00.022-08:00

Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-2/3 has been added an option to specify the type of input data - adjusted quotes (it is useful when a stock splits) or actual quotes without adjusting. Also now SMAP-3 allows managing the list of symbols and performing a forecast comparative analysis. A user can edit, delete, add symbols on the list, and download all files. The processed symbols output is

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7160230786343559267.post-57232004878205850722010-01-29T23:18:00.000-08:002010-01-29T23:22:18.658-08:00

The stock market has powerful and consistent cycles. They can be as a bad surprise for some investors but others know how to take advantage of the market cycles. By identifying the cycles it is possible to anticipate tops and bottoms and to determine trends. The stock market cycles can be a good opportunity to maximize return on investments. "The stock market cycles known by investors for long,"

Alex Shmatovhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17880460693965335408noreply@blogger.com0