Multi-model Forecast

Stock Market Forecast Tools SMFT-1:

discover the power of multi-model forecast - increase your trading profitability.

2013-04-26

About Trading Decision Support System TraDeSS-1

Trading Decision Support System TraDeSS-1 is for institutional traders and investors who deal with ETFs, commodities, and big-volume equities. It is a comprehensive and effective software to help finding the best trading opportunities, maximizing profitability using several predictive models with back-testing features, and optimizing algorithms by running simulations.


TraDeSS-1 is equipped with an advanced forecasting state-of-the-art system. The predicting can be done using nine forecast methods of different nature. Only one method, a combination of a few ones, or all together can be used. Each method is provided with back-test calculation to estimate the accuracy of forecast within the recent performance period. The back-testing computations play an important role if more than one method is selected. It allows assigning a weight to each method in a composed result; the weights are proportional to the ability of the methods to predict the price.

The comparative analysis of simulations shows that systems based on predicted entry-exit signals generate a better profit in around 70% cases than random-entry trading systems. As well as, it should be noted that a multi-model forecast provides a significant improvement over the best individual forecast. It can be explained by the existence of many different independent factors contributing to the error in each forecast which is normally distributed around an actual value.

Since sometimes predictions can fail, to preserve a principal amount in a volatile market, the software enables simulating different risk management approaches. Depending on the character of particular trading assets and the current market conditions some ideas can work better than others. To optimize the strategy in a particular case, the software enables testing different algorithm configurations and finding automatically the best ones. It is especially important for exit points to minimize losses (and ultimately maximize an overall profit). All optimizations can be done automatically by scanning 64 possible logical combinations and adjusting numerical parameters.

TraDeSS-1 has a functionality that allows estimating a hypothetical maximum possible profit in case of 100% accurate forecast. Although an actual forecast cannot be so accurate, this feature combined with comparative analysis enables discovering the best trading opportunities among different types of financial instruments. Calculating maximum theoretical return allows finding optimal buy and sell signals. Also it helps estimating a reasonable amount of initial investment at given transaction fee. Users can choose to re-invest each time a new or the same amount and see the difference in results.

The software has forward testing and assets management features. It allows monitoring the simulated or actual completed transactions, reflecting total trading activity, and evaluating the success of trading in overall. It enables working with many separate data files that is convenient in case of managing multiple assets and keeping the archives of older activities.

TraDeSS-1 has also a few independent tools, such as, technical indicators predictor, cycle analysis forecast, Neural Network (NN) forecast, fundamental 3-month rating model for equities, etc. The detailed description is presented in User's Manual (accessible from menu Help after downloading and installing the software). The software is available via the registration (no payment data collected and no obligation to buy).

A fully-functional software during initial 30-day period is free. To continue using the software after 30 days, the subscription is required (subscription link is available from the software interface). Technical support and updates are included. Annual lease and perpetual license are available. Paid on-site training (how to use the software) can be provided.

2 comments: