Cycle Analysis Forecast Gives Clues for March 2010 Stock Market Performance

According to cycle analysis forecast, SP-500 performance for March 2010 expected to be negative. The chart below has been plotted using Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-3.



The stock market performance curve can be considered as a sum of the cyclical functions with different periods and amplitudes. It is not easy to analyze the repetition of typical patterns in stock market performance because cycles mask themselves - sometimes they overlap to form an abnormal extremum or offset to form a flat period. A simple chart analysis has a certain limit in identifying cycles.

Addaptron Software has developed Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor (SMAP), computer program, which is able not only to extract basic cycles of the stock market (indexes, sectors, or well-traded shares) but also to predict an optimal timing to buy or sell stocks. SMAP calculation mainly based on extracting basic cyclical functions with different periods, amplitudes, and phases from historical quote curve. To detect correctly major cycles, the historical price data are transformed from time domain to frequency domain (spectrum).

See also:
Weekly stock market forecast
Tools to predict stock market

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Nothing in this piece or on this blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments.

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

Stock Market Forecast Using Expert Method

The more methods and information are taken into consideration, the more precise an investment-related solution and, consequently, the more profitable is investing. There is Expert Method. This method can be explained by following. As example, an experimentalist shows a pen and asks about 40 people to write down their estimate of the length. Then he collects notes and calculates the average number - normally it is almost 100% accurate. Why it works? Everyone makes errors in different directions so that averaging gives a precise result.

There is a webpage where you are invited to build a collective forecast for S&P-500 index. Please share your opinion by voting and see the result of composite forecast. If you use more than one method, approach, or tool for prediction, it could be reasonable to give a vote for each one. All participants may benefit from building a simple average forecast. However, do not put too much trust in any method alone - make your own conclusion.

Link to S&P-500 index weekly forecast

© Alex Shmatov. Published with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction strictly prohibited without permission.

SMAP-2/3 Update

Stock Market Analyzer-Predictor SMAP-2/3 has been added an option to specify the type of input data - adjusted quotes (it is useful when a stock splits) or actual quotes without adjusting. Also now SMAP-3 allows managing the list of symbols and performing a forecast comparative analysis. A user can edit, delete, add symbols on the list, and download all files. The processed symbols output is sorted according to expected performance. To update your tools, visit Addaptron Software download page or use Update interface button.