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2012-02-15

Predicting the Next Move of the Market by Elliott Wave

The Elliot Wave model is based on a crowd psychology that changes between optimistic and pessimistic states creating patterns that can be fitted to natural sequences. These days, the Elliott Wave principle can be improved and used in stock market forecast. Combining this method with Neural Network (NN) helps to eliminate the subjectivity in counting waves.

Instead of assuming that waves obey only the sequence of Fibonacci, harmonic, or fractal ratios, a more general approach can be used to process all extracted waves. Besides, employing NN enables identifying both the price and date of extremes. Although the Elliott Wave does not generate always accurate and consistent forecasts, its result can be successfully used as an additional input for making a trading or investing decision in modern market conditions.

The chart and the portion of output result below can give a clue for a possible next move of S&P-500 for the next week:



Symbol: ^GSPC
Total waves number: 126
Cases number: 108
Target: 1,382.35$ at 2012-02-21 (change 3.10% from 2012-02-14)
No Date $ % up/down period
115 2012-01-02 1,284.62 2.88 100.00 3
116 2012-01-04 1,265.26 -1.51 0.00 2
117 2012-01-11 1,296.82 2.49 100.00 5
118 2012-01-12 1,277.58 -1.48 0.00 1
119 2012-01-20 1,322.28 3.50 100.00 5
120 2012-01-24 1,306.06 -1.23 0.00 1
121 2012-01-26 1,333.47 2.10 100.00 2
122 2012-01-30 1,300.49 -2.47 0.00 2
123 2012-02-09 1,354.32 4.14 100.00 8
124 2012-02-10 1,337.35 -1.25 0.00 1
125 2012-02-13 1,353.35 1.20 100.00 1
126 2012-02-14 1,340.83 -0.93 0.00 1

Chart and calculation results by SMFT-1 (a version of FTA-2 sub-system Waves module interface)

4 comments:

  1. There are many ways to going to this sector at a time.So apart from this they are really good and able to taeach this to others. And that is the good point of them.They will be continue to this sector for sure.






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