The US stock market reached the highest level in two years after a strong two-month rally. However, good news about improving retail results and a four-month low jobless claims rate were unable to push the market higher. Since the current market is driven mostly by news, it was a relatively rare case when technical indicators were able to predict a downtrend. A massive insider selling was another factor that contributed to the decline. If the correction is deep, then a consequent cyclical reaction might send the market up again.
The GDP grew at a 2% pace in the third quarter that is slightly better than the 1.7% growth during the second quarter. The government says that the improvement of GDP-to-deficit ratio is the biggest since fiscal 1987 year. Many analysts expect that the US corporate earnings will aspire higher despite a weakening dollar and a slow-speed recovery will lead eventually to an economic normalization.
2010-10-30
SP-500 Index: the First Two Weeks of November 2010
Although technically there are no many signals for significant advance in any direction, a possible scenario could be a downside move at the end of the first week and then a slight bounce back. As example of technical prediction, see the chart. The chart has been plotted using InvAn-4 pattern recognition forecast for S&P-500 index prices (November 1-12, 2010). From the summarized point of view, stock market investors may not rely on technical predictions but rather react to the US congressional elections and the Federal Reserve economic stimulus plans. Therefore, news might be a major driving force in the stock market for the first two weeks of November 2010.
2010-10-09
October 2010 Stock Market Overview: Fundamentals Not Improving, Technicals Not Worsening
Due to a growing expectation that the US Federal Reserve will ease a credit environment to help the economy recovery, the US dollar dropped to several-month lows against most foreign currencies. More dollars may stimulate the economical growth. On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve pumps more dollars into the economy, a falling dollar can negatively affect consumers, businesses, and investors.
A dollar weakness together with the news that the US federal deficit for the 2010 budget year was estimated around $1.3 trillion add some fear of the instability of the system, Gold hit a new high that may also evidence a weak hope among investors for a decent stock market performance.
The US unemployment stayed at high 9.6% rate for the last couple of months. Adding jobless people who are not actively seeking work and people who are underemployed result more than 17%. Such statistics may indicate that the stimulus measures failed to create jobs as it was initially expected.
Some of technical indicators signal a lasting momentum that may keep the recent uptrend cycle for several weeks ahead. However, the third quarter earnings reports may not be so optimistic to sustain an existing stock market evaluation. In this case, major stock market indexes may have a correction if more negative news add the pressure.
The chart above shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from October 11 to October 22, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is a slight uptrend.
A dollar weakness together with the news that the US federal deficit for the 2010 budget year was estimated around $1.3 trillion add some fear of the instability of the system, Gold hit a new high that may also evidence a weak hope among investors for a decent stock market performance.
The US unemployment stayed at high 9.6% rate for the last couple of months. Adding jobless people who are not actively seeking work and people who are underemployed result more than 17%. Such statistics may indicate that the stimulus measures failed to create jobs as it was initially expected.
Some of technical indicators signal a lasting momentum that may keep the recent uptrend cycle for several weeks ahead. However, the third quarter earnings reports may not be so optimistic to sustain an existing stock market evaluation. In this case, major stock market indexes may have a correction if more negative news add the pressure.
The chart above shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from October 11 to October 22, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is a slight uptrend.
2010-09-24
SP-500 Forecast for the Next Two Weeks, September 27 – October 8, 2010
The chart shows S&P-500 forecast for the period from September 27 to October 8, 2010. The calculation has been performed using Neural Network Stock Trend Predictor NNSTP-2. The forecast is fluctuations with eventual uptrend. However, technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.
2010-09-12
Pattern Prediction for September 13-24, 2010
The patterns of the S&P-500 Index may be repeatable in the future. Pattern recognition systems can help to find similar patterns easier by classifying them. After selecting similar patterns, it is possible to use them to predict the future pattern.
Investment Analyzer (IA) by Addaptron Software has a few extra features for a short term forecast. To predict prices of the selected stock (index) using pattern similarity. IA searches for the pattern from the internal database by scanning all historical data. Depending on degree of similarity, it ranks all possible matches within given historical period and then combine them.
The chart below has been plotted using IA pattern similarity feature. S&P-500 index prices have been used as input; the output is prediction for September 13-24. A possible prediction is a slight uptrend and then more downtrend. However, technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
Investment Analyzer (IA) by Addaptron Software has a few extra features for a short term forecast. To predict prices of the selected stock (index) using pattern similarity. IA searches for the pattern from the internal database by scanning all historical data. Depending on degree of similarity, it ranks all possible matches within given historical period and then combine them.
The chart below has been plotted using IA pattern similarity feature. S&P-500 index prices have been used as input; the output is prediction for September 13-24. A possible prediction is a slight uptrend and then more downtrend. However, technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do our own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
2010-08-27
S&P-500 Forecast for the First 10 Days of September on the Basis of Technical Indicators Signals
There is a lot of technical indicators, as well as, multiple interpretations of each indicator's signal. Many stock investors and traders use own favorite indicators and insist on specific interpretations. How to make sure that it is right? What if to allow a computer to decide using back-testing which indicator should be trusted more at current market conditions?
One of computer tools that enables to compose the price forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator is Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. It performs a short-term (10 trading days) forecast using Neural Network. The chart below shows an example of such forecast. It is S&P-500 index forecast for the first 10 days of September, 2010
It indicates that the index may rise until September 3 and then follow some downtrend.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
One of computer tools that enables to compose the price forecast with weights accordingly to predictive ability of each technical indicator is Investment Analyzer InvAn-4. It performs a short-term (10 trading days) forecast using Neural Network. The chart below shows an example of such forecast. It is S&P-500 index forecast for the first 10 days of September, 2010
It indicates that the index may rise until September 3 and then follow some downtrend.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
2010-08-09
S&P-500 Index May Drop Soon
There are several negative fundamental factors that can cause stock market downtrend: GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in the second quarter compared with 3.7% in the first quarter; jobless rate is at high level (9.5%); individuals and companies save cash at near record levels; consumer spending shows no signs of picking up; state budget deficit poses an additional risk to the US economy.
Despite a weak current conditions of the US economy and pessimistic investors' expectations, the stock market would continue to move sideways above some supportive level. However, technically S&P-500 Index is ready to start a downtrend cycle. The probability may increase with approaching September-October traditional low performance season.
Additionally, there is a natural stock market fluctuation. The following chart represents S&P-500 forecast for September 2010 using cycle analysis. The calculation has been performed using SMAP-3 computer program:
A possible prediction is a cycle with minimum in September. However, as always - technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
Despite a weak current conditions of the US economy and pessimistic investors' expectations, the stock market would continue to move sideways above some supportive level. However, technically S&P-500 Index is ready to start a downtrend cycle. The probability may increase with approaching September-October traditional low performance season.
Additionally, there is a natural stock market fluctuation. The following chart represents S&P-500 forecast for September 2010 using cycle analysis. The calculation has been performed using SMAP-3 computer program:
A possible prediction is a cycle with minimum in September. However, as always - technical prediction may be different if something fundamental happens.
Nothing in this piece or blog should be construed as investment advice in any way. Always do your own research or/and consult a qualified investment advisor. It is wise to analyze data from multiple sources and draw your own conclusions based on the soundest principles. Be aware of the risks involved in stock investments
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